It was two months ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach berated him for not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team went six without a win, the question was if his performances were an indicator or a cause of the side's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. When the England international drilled in his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery discarded his coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win , despite not winning any of their first six games, now sit just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. History, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding in many games, even as the wins have piled up.
According to Opta, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club who have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem strangely fragile – yet at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping their talisman to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, arced right inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents managed more shots and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the match-winner faced the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
