A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
